Aluminum prices pull back, while baled UBC continues to rise slightly [Daily Review of Aluminum Scrap]

SMM News on June 19:

Today, spot primary aluminum prices fell by 130 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day. SMM A00 spot aluminum closed at 20,770 yuan/mt, while the aluminum scrap market struggled to catch up with the price increase. As the off-season in June progresses beyond the halfway mark, downstream scrap utilization enterprises are experiencing weak order releases, with procurement primarily driven by immediate needs.

Today, the centralized quoted prices for baled UBC aluminum scrap range from 15,450 to 15,950 yuan/mt (tax not included), while the centralized quoted prices for shredded aluminum tense scrap range from 15,900 to 17,400 yuan/mt (tax not included). Regionally, areas such as Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Shandong closely track aluminum prices, with price adjustments ranging from 100 to 150 yuan/mt. In contrast, regions like Jiangxi, Hubei, Henan, and Foshan lag behind in price adjustments, which also range from 100 to 150 yuan/mt. By product, baled UBC aluminum scrap prices continued to rise by 50 yuan/mt today, while shredded aluminum tense scrap prices pulled back by 100 yuan/mt compared to yesterday.

Regarding the price difference between A00 aluminum and aluminum scrap, the price spread for mechanical casting aluminum scrap in Shanghai increased by 21 yuan/mt to 1,837 yuan/mt compared to yesterday, while the price difference between A00 aluminum and mixed aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan decreased by 120 yuan/mt to 1,598 yuan/mt compared to yesterday.

Considering the actual difficulty in shipping goods, aluminum scrap suppliers are adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude towards price adjustments amid rising aluminum prices. Next week, the aluminum scrap market is expected to continue the pattern of "fluctuating at highs with product differentiation," maintaining an overall strong trend. Due to persistent supply shortages, aluminum tense scrap prices exhibit significant resilience, with shredded aluminum tense scrap (tax not included) fluctuating within the range of 15,800 to 17,400 yuan/mt, showing relatively limited declines. Baled UBC aluminum scrap is expected to experience a mild pullback to 15,200-15,600 yuan/mt (tax not included), with a potential weekly decline of 100-150 yuan/mt. Regional price differences will further widen: the east China region (Shanghai, Shandong) may see daily price adjustments of up to 200 yuan/mt due to the linkage with electrolytic aluminum and policy disturbances, resulting in significant volatility. Inland provinces (such as Jiangxi, Hubei) may lack the momentum to catch up with price increases due to supply and demand differentiation and lagging price adjustments, potentially leading to a continued expansion of price differences.

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